{
 "question": "Does rain in an hour slow the Lingampally -> Lakdikapul trip in that hour, by how much, and where?",
 "data": {
  "traffic": "TomTom Traffic Stats jobs 10053357 + 10053399: every day 1-31 July 2026, one-hour slots, 12 legs (measured)",
  "weather": "Open-Meteo historical weather archive (ERA5-based reanalysis, ~9 km grid), 3 points (grid cells 17.47,78.27, 17.40,78.37, 17.40,78.46); corridor value = mean of the 3 points",
  "slots": 558,
  "days": 31,
  "hours": "06:00-24:00",
  "slots_by_rain_class": {
   "dry": 323,
   "light": 201,
   "moderate": 34,
   "heavy": 0
  },
  "typical_mm_per_hour": {
   "light": 0.34,
   "moderate": 1.69
  },
  "class_limits_mm_per_hour": {
   "dry": [0.0, 0.1],
   "light": [0.1, 1.0],
   "moderate": [1.0, 5.0],
   "heavy": [5.0, null]
  },
  "max_hourly_rain_mm": 4.53,
  "wettest_slots": [
   {
    "date": "2026-07-26",
    "slot": "23:00-24:00",
    "rain_mm": 4.53,
    "trip_min": 46.1
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-17",
    "slot": "15:00-16:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.9,
    "trip_min": 58.4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-30",
    "slot": "08:00-09:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.8,
    "trip_min": 59.9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-20",
    "slot": "22:00-23:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.53,
    "trip_min": 52.6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-21",
    "slot": "19:00-20:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.5,
    "trip_min": 75.7
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-17",
    "slot": "12:00-13:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.17,
    "trip_min": 52.6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-17",
    "slot": "16:00-17:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.0,
    "trip_min": 68.9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-07-18",
    "slot": "16:00-17:00",
    "rain_mm": 2.0,
    "trip_min": 63.6
   }
  ],
  "mean_trip_min_06_23": 56.9,
  "alignment": "TomTom slot hh:00-hh+1:00 <- Open-Meteo row stamped hh+1:00 (precipitation = total over the preceding hour)"
 },
 "model": "log(trip time) = hour-of-day + day-of-week + rain class in the hour + previous hour's rain (mm); SEs clustered by day; 95% ranges from a day-block bootstrap (2000 resamples of whole days); p from a permutation test (2000 times, each day gets another day's whole rain pattern). Effects are on the log scale: pct = exp(effect) - 1",
 "models": {
  "classes": {
   "effects": {
    "light": {
     "log_effect": 0.02739503702253887,
     "se_cluster": 0.012303685549586232,
     "ci95_cluster": [0.003279813345349856, 0.05151026069972789],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.00043975584804867936, 0.05067471633488972],
     "p_permutation": 0.07546226886556721
    },
    "moderate": {
     "log_effect": 0.018106858509101542,
     "se_cluster": 0.028779550530799593,
     "ci95_cluster": [-0.03830106053126566, 0.07451477754946875],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.04703834564327407, 0.06405412744433907],
     "p_permutation": 0.42978510744627685
    },
    "rain_prev_mm": {
     "log_effect": 0.034138590369452326,
     "se_cluster": 0.017334650402968797,
     "ci95_cluster": [0.00016267557963348112, 0.06811450515927117],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.005489726075791049, 0.0654614772184257],
     "p_permutation": 0.022988505747126436
    }
   },
   "residual_sd_log": 0.1029,
   "n_obs": 558,
   "n_params": 27
  },
  "linear": {
   "effects": {
    "rain_now_mm": {
     "log_effect": 0.020208494031250024,
     "se_cluster": 0.012588785338128081,
     "ci95_cluster": [-0.004465525231481013, 0.04488251329398106],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.014663217348084397, 0.040942621875503044],
     "p_permutation": 0.10778443113772455
    },
    "rain_prev_mm": {
     "log_effect": 0.03445713175002918,
     "se_cluster": 0.016760937418766764,
     "ci95_cluster": [0.0016056944092463221, 0.06730856909081204],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.005083175027233419, 0.0656475210324095],
     "p_permutation": 0.021956087824351298
    }
   },
   "residual_sd_log": 0.1033,
   "n_obs": 558,
   "n_params": 26
  },
  "dayfe": {
   "effects": {
    "light": {
     "log_effect": 0.0005478898286551126,
     "se_cluster": 0.008220091960714668,
     "ci95_cluster": [-0.015563490414345637, 0.016659270071655862],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.016056639099975928, 0.01626788943088126],
     "p_permutation": 0.9540918163672655
    },
    "moderate": {
     "log_effect": -0.020590496858645613,
     "se_cluster": 0.02840162688970179,
     "ci95_cluster": [-0.07625768556246112, 0.03507669184516989],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.07089830205273143, 0.03614804767776803],
     "p_permutation": 0.249500998003992
    },
    "rain_prev_mm": {
     "log_effect": 0.007749041479172325,
     "se_cluster": 0.007881898152161252,
     "ci95_cluster": [-0.007699478899063729, 0.02319756185740838],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.006948384962130579, 0.02681632948077701],
     "p_permutation": 0.499001996007984
    }
   },
   "residual_sd_log": 0.0691,
   "n_obs": 558,
   "n_params": 68
  },
  "any_rain": {
   "effects": {
    "any_rain": {
     "log_effect": 0.026953046330735808,
     "se_cluster": 0.011739614803850192,
     "ci95_cluster": [0.003943401315189433, 0.04996269134628219],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [0.0014475951908152623, 0.04849635176305536],
     "p_permutation": 0.07946026986506746
    },
    "rain_prev_mm": {
     "log_effect": 0.031973157864508384,
     "se_cluster": 0.019565660744342017,
     "ci95_cluster": [-0.006375537194401967, 0.07032185292341873],
     "ci95_bootstrap": [-0.01348245510144593, 0.06723983174113346],
     "p_permutation": 0.06446776611694154
    }
   }
  }
 },
 "headline": {
  "any_rain": {
   "pct": 2.7,
   "ci95_pct": [0.1, 5.0],
   "p": 0.079,
   "minutes_on_mean_trip": 1.6
  },
  "by_class": {
   "light": {
    "pct": 2.8,
    "ci95_pct": [0.0, 5.2],
    "p": 0.075,
    "slots": 201,
    "minutes_on_mean_trip": 1.6
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 1.8,
    "ci95_pct": [-4.6, 6.6],
    "p": 0.43,
    "slots": 34,
    "minutes_on_mean_trip": 1.0
   }
  },
  "previous_hour_per_mm": {
   "pct": 3.5,
   "ci95_pct": [-0.5, 6.8],
   "p": 0.023
  },
  "sustained": {
   "light": {
    "pct": 4.0,
    "ci95_pct": [0.5, 6.9],
    "typical_mm": 0.34,
    "minutes_on_mean_trip": 2.3
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 7.9,
    "ci95_pct": [-3.9, 16.1],
    "typical_mm": 1.69,
    "minutes_on_mean_trip": 4.5
   }
  },
  "within_day_check": {
   "light": {
    "pct": 0.1,
    "ci95_pct": [-1.6, 1.6],
    "p": 0.954
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -2.0,
    "ci95_pct": [-6.8, 3.7],
    "p": 0.25
   },
   "rain_prev_mm": {
    "pct": 0.8,
    "ci95_pct": [-0.7, 2.7],
    "p": 0.499
   }
  },
  "linear_per_mm": {
   "pct": 2.0,
   "ci95_pct": [-1.5, 4.2],
   "p": 0.108
  }
 },
 "per_leg": [
  {
   "leg": "A_lingampally-j01",
   "from": "Lingampally (Old Bombay Rd, route start)",
   "to": "Nallagandla Rd jn",
   "distance_m": 1911.0,
   "mean_min": 6.65,
   "light": {
    "pct": 4.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-1.8, 9.5],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.9,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.073
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -1.1,
    "ci95_pct": [-12.1, 8.4],
    "pct_shrunk": 0.9,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.313
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 8.2,
    "ci95_pct": [1.1, 15.7],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.5
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 7.0,
     "ci95_pct": [-0.3, 13.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 4.1
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 13.0,
     "ci95_pct": [-4.2, 24.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 6.9
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j01-j02",
   "from": "Nallagandla Rd jn",
   "to": "ISB Rd / DLF jn",
   "distance_m": 5414.0,
   "mean_min": 13.47,
   "light": {
    "pct": 5.0,
    "ci95_pct": [1.0, 9.1],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.1,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.125
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 7.4,
    "ci95_pct": [-4.0, 19.7],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.3,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.271
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 3.5,
    "ci95_pct": [-4.0, 9.7],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.5
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 6.3,
     "ci95_pct": [0.9, 11.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 4.3
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 13.9,
     "ci95_pct": [-6.7, 33.8],
     "pct_shrunk": 9.5
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j02-j03",
   "from": "ISB Rd / DLF jn",
   "to": "Gachibowli Circle",
   "distance_m": 1386.0,
   "mean_min": 3.78,
   "light": {
    "pct": 0.6,
    "ci95_pct": [-2.7, 3.9],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.4,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.179
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 3.6,
    "ci95_pct": [-6.4, 10.0],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.6,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.441
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 3.3,
    "ci95_pct": [-1.9, 8.2],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.5
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 1.7,
     "ci95_pct": [-1.8, 4.7],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.6
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 9.3,
     "ci95_pct": [-7.6, 21.7],
     "pct_shrunk": 8.7
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j03-j04",
   "from": "Gachibowli Circle",
   "to": "Biodiversity jn (flyover)",
   "distance_m": 1581.0,
   "mean_min": 3.04,
   "light": {
    "pct": 4.5,
    "ci95_pct": [-0.3, 7.3],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.0,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.141
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -1.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-7.3, 3.5],
    "pct_shrunk": -0.2,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.672
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 6.3,
    "ci95_pct": [0.3, 13.4],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.5
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 6.7,
     "ci95_pct": [0.8, 10.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 4.2
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 9.6,
     "ci95_pct": [-4.7, 23.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 5.8
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j04-j05",
   "from": "Biodiversity jn (flyover)",
   "to": "Khajaguda X Roads",
   "distance_m": 1078.0,
   "mean_min": 2.38,
   "light": {
    "pct": 1.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-2.8, 4.7],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.5,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.143
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 5.8,
    "ci95_pct": [-1.4, 12.1],
    "pct_shrunk": 4.0,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.549
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": -1.0,
    "ci95_pct": [-5.4, 4.0],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.4
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 0.8,
     "ci95_pct": [-3.2, 4.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.7
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 3.9,
     "ci95_pct": [-7.6, 16.9],
     "pct_shrunk": 10.0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j05-j06",
   "from": "Khajaguda X Roads",
   "to": "Narne Rd jn Shaikpet",
   "distance_m": 1621.0,
   "mean_min": 2.84,
   "light": {
    "pct": 3.9,
    "ci95_pct": [1.1, 5.8],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.2,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.333
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 6.9,
    "ci95_pct": [0.4, 12.0],
    "pct_shrunk": 4.9,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.624
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 1.0,
    "ci95_pct": [-2.1, 4.1],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.4
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 4.3,
     "ci95_pct": [1.1, 6.2],
     "pct_shrunk": 4.3
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 8.8,
     "ci95_pct": [-0.9, 16.8],
     "pct_shrunk": 11.0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j06-j07",
   "from": "Narne Rd jn Shaikpet",
   "to": "Tolichowki",
   "distance_m": 2830.0,
   "mean_min": 4.61,
   "light": {
    "pct": 0.9,
    "ci95_pct": [-0.9, 2.4],
    "pct_shrunk": 1.9,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.482
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -0.9,
    "ci95_pct": [-4.1, 1.7],
    "pct_shrunk": -0.5,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.854
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 2.0,
    "ci95_pct": [-0.4, 5.2],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.4
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 1.6,
     "ci95_pct": [-0.5, 3.5],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.0
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 2.5,
     "ci95_pct": [-3.1, 8.3],
     "pct_shrunk": 5.3
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j07-j08",
   "from": "Tolichowki",
   "to": "Nanal Nagar jn",
   "distance_m": 1370.0,
   "mean_min": 3.96,
   "light": {
    "pct": -0.5,
    "ci95_pct": [-5.7, 3.8],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.5,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.09
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -8.6,
    "ci95_pct": [-15.5, -2.9],
    "pct_shrunk": -3.9,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.534
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": -0.6,
    "ci95_pct": [-4.7, 3.9],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.4
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": -0.7,
     "ci95_pct": [-5.8, 3.6],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.7
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": -9.6,
     "ci95_pct": [-18.5, -0.8],
     "pct_shrunk": 1.7
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j08-j09",
   "from": "Nanal Nagar jn",
   "to": "Rethibowli jn",
   "distance_m": 418.0,
   "mean_min": 1.17,
   "light": {
    "pct": -1.9,
    "ci95_pct": [-8.5, 6.8],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.6,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.039
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -7.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-17.6, 7.3],
    "pct_shrunk": -0.3,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.231
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 5.3,
    "ci95_pct": [-6.9, 16.0],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.5
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": -0.2,
     "ci95_pct": [-7.2, 9.2],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.8
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 1.2,
     "ci95_pct": [-18.0, 22.4],
     "pct_shrunk": 5.6
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j09-j10",
   "from": "Rethibowli jn",
   "to": "NMDC / Masab Tank Rd",
   "distance_m": 2241.0,
   "mean_min": 7.37,
   "light": {
    "pct": 1.1,
    "ci95_pct": [-3.2, 5.1],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.6,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.108
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 2.1,
    "ci95_pct": [-6.0, 8.3],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.0,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.506
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 3.6,
    "ci95_pct": [0.1, 7.2],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.5
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 2.4,
     "ci95_pct": [-2.5, 6.5],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.8
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 8.4,
     "ci95_pct": [-3.7, 18.6],
     "pct_shrunk": 8.0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j10-j11",
   "from": "NMDC / Masab Tank Rd",
   "to": "Masab Tank",
   "distance_m": 930.0,
   "mean_min": 2.47,
   "light": {
    "pct": 0.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-2.3, 2.6],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.0,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.294
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": -0.6,
    "ci95_pct": [-3.7, 1.9],
    "pct_shrunk": -0.3,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.904
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 1.0,
    "ci95_pct": [-2.0, 3.8],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.4
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 0.5,
     "ci95_pct": [-2.4, 3.2],
     "pct_shrunk": 3.2
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 1.2,
     "ci95_pct": [-4.9, 6.5],
     "pct_shrunk": 5.4
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "leg": "j11-B_lakdikapul",
   "from": "Masab Tank",
   "to": "Lakdikapul",
   "distance_m": 1636.0,
   "mean_min": 5.16,
   "light": {
    "pct": 3.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-1.2, 7.0],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.8,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.128
   },
   "moderate": {
    "pct": 3.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-3.3, 9.1],
    "pct_shrunk": 2.6,
    "weight_own_estimate": 0.563
   },
   "previous_hour_per_mm": {
    "pct": 1.2,
    "ci95_pct": [-2.1, 4.5],
    "pct_shrunk": 3.4
   },
   "sustained": {
    "light": {
     "pct": 3.6,
     "ci95_pct": [-1.0, 7.3],
     "pct_shrunk": 4.0
    },
    "moderate": {
     "pct": 5.3,
     "ci95_pct": [-3.2, 12.1],
     "pct_shrunk": 8.5
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "per_leg_spread_beyond_noise_log": {
  "light": 0.0074,
  "moderate": 0.0347,
  "rain_prev_mm": 0.0028
 },
 "share_of_days_by_hour": {
  "6": {
   "dry": 0.677,
   "light": 0.29,
   "moderate": 0.032,
   "heavy": 0.0
  },
  "7": {
   "dry": 0.677,
   "light": 0.323,
   "moderate": 0.0,
   "heavy": 0.0
  },
  "8": {
   "dry": 0.613,
   "light": 0.355,
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 "generated_by": "data/weather/analyse_weather_hourly.py"
}